AGP Executive Report

Suu Kyi: Myanmar’s military-backed government released rare photographs of the detained former leader, saying she received books and a letter from King Charles. She was moved to house arrest in April, but her health and whereabouts have long been difficult to verify. US–Myanmar Talks: Reports say Washington has held secret talks with the military-backed government in Tokyo, including discussions focused on rare earths—a sharp shift in US policy. Refugee Safety: Malaysian police detained 13 men over a Molotov cocktail attack on homes in a Myanmar refugee settlement in Johor. In Thailand, a work-permit scheme is offering refugees from Myanmar a way to earn a living outside border camps as aid declines. Economic Strain: Yangon palm-oil prices have surged after the regime cut imports and regional supply quotas, adding pressure on households. Separately, Myanmar’s coffee industry is looking to China for export growth. Military Leadership: Min Aung Hlaing appointed Yar Pyae as defence minister in a cabinet reshuffle.

US–Myanmar Talks: Washington has held a second round of confidential talks with Myanmar’s military-backed authorities, reportedly discussing the release of a detained American and scam centres; access to rare earths may also be on the agenda. The outreach has raised concern given the military’s record of abuses against the Rohingya. Fuel Shipments: Shipping data indicate an Iranian tanker carrying jet fuel reached Myanmar in September despite the US naval blockade, part of Tehran’s efforts to move fuel exports. Rakhine Conflict: The Arakan Army is advancing toward Sittwe, one of the last major areas in Rakhine still held by the military, according to a new account of the fighting. Energy Investment: China Datang says it plans further hydropower, wind and solar projects in Myanmar, including solar developments in Naypyitaw, Mandalay and Bhamo, if conditions allow. Human Rights: Chin State lawyer and defender Zar Li Aye has received the 2026 International Bar Association award for her work providing legal aid to people facing political detention and other abuses. Rohingya Justice: OIC members have renewed support for the genocide case at the International Court of Justice and called for sustained humanitarian assistance.

Border Violence: Fresh fighting in Manipur’s Kamjong district killed a Kuki man, injured four others and left at least 15 Kuki homes burnt; three Tangkhul Naga men were also injured and two Naga villages reportedly torched. Rival groups blame each other, and accounts remain contested. Civilian Toll: Myanmar military airstrikes in Yesagyo Township reportedly killed at least 10 civilians, including children, on October 16. Conscription Fears: Young people in Myanmar are avoiding going out at night as reports of forced recruitment spread, including allegations that people are being handed over for money. Peace Talks: Min Aung Hlaing’s invitation to armed groups was rejected by the CNF and ABSDF, which called the talks a ploy amid ongoing military attacks. US Policy: Washington has held further undisclosed talks with Myanmar’s military-backed government in Tokyo, reportedly focused on rare earths, prompting concern over a shift in US policy. Weather Warning: Myanmar’s meteorology department warns El Niño could bring extreme heat, drought and water shortages in coming seasons.

Forced Conscription: Young men in Myanmar are increasingly afraid to go out after dark as reports of street abductions and forced military service spread. Residents also allege that people are being handed over to meet conscription quotas for money. Civilian Toll: An airstrike in Yesagyo Township reportedly killed 11 people, including six women and two children. The military could not be reached for comment. Washington’s Shift: The US and Myanmar’s military-backed government held a second round of talks in Tokyo, following September discussions on scam centres and an American businessman’s release. Rare-earth access may also be on the agenda, though details remain undisclosed. Scam Networks: China’s embassy in Thailand warned travellers about kidnappings linked to fake job offers, citing scam operations along the Thailand-Myanmar border that use forced labour and trafficking. Rohingya Crisis: Bangladesh urged OIC members to keep pressure on Myanmar’s authorities and support the Rohingya’s safe, dignified and sustainable return.

Civilian Casualties: A military airstrike in Yesagyo Township reportedly killed 11 people, including two children, on Friday. A People’s Defence Force member and a witness described homes destroyed; the military could not be reached for comment. U.S. Engagement: Washington and Myanmar’s military-backed government held a second round of talks in Tokyo, following September discussions on freeing a detained American and shutting scam compounds. Rare-earth access is also in focus, raising concerns about a major shift in U.S. policy. Economic Strain: The kyat has weakened to around 4,600–4,700 per U.S. dollar on the informal market, as the regime plans more central-bank borrowing and pursues Belarusian credit. Fuel Imports: Shipping data indicate an Iranian jet-fuel tanker reached Myanmar in September despite U.S. sanctions on the country’s jet-fuel industry. Diplomatic Ties: Belarus says its new embassy in Naypyidaw opened this month, as Minsk seeks closer relations with Myanmar.

Political Climate: Six months into Min Aung Hlaing’s presidency, Yangon residents speak openly about daily concerns but remain cautious about discussing politics, a reporter found. US Engagement: Washington and Myanmar’s military-backed government held a second round of talks in Tokyo in a month, as the US explores cooperation on scam centers and potentially rare-earth minerals—a sharp shift from its post-coup isolation policy. Conflict: A new report says nearly 70% of junta airstrikes targeted civilians; separate reports say air raids killed civilians near the Mon-Karen border. Economic Strain: The kyat has weakened to around 4,600–4,700 per US dollar on the informal market, amid concerns over rising prices and the regime’s plan to borrow more than 2 trillion kyat. Fuel Supply: Iranian jet fuel reached Myanmar despite US sanctions and a naval blockade, while the regime has reopened the Thanlyin refinery to expand domestic aviation-fuel production. Regional Links: India and Myanmar signed five local development project agreements, while a new Yangon–Chengdu flight route is expected to support tourism and trade.

US–Myanmar Talks: Washington held a second round of talks with Myanmar’s military-backed government in a month, this time in Tokyo. The agenda remains unclear, but earlier discussions covered scam centres and could extend to rare-earth minerals, marking a sharp shift from the post-coup policy of avoiding direct contact. Civilian Harm: A new analysis says junta airstrikes killed 3,059 civilians between the 2021 coup and July 2026, with Sagaing and Rakhine among the hardest-hit areas. Freedom of Expression: A September report documents arrests for social media posts, including criticism of conscription, as restrictions on communication persist. ASEAN Push: The regime has formed a committee to press for its return to regional meetings, despite ASEAN’s continued exclusion over its failure to halt violence and pursue dialogue. Migrant Pressure: Myanmar has repatriated 142 nationals from Malaysia, while new identity-card rules require migrants in Thailand to route part of their earnings through official channels. Rohingya Justice: The International Court of Justice is expected to rule soon on Gambia’s genocide case against Myanmar, a decision that could set a historic precedent.

Airstrikes: At least eight civilians were reportedly killed in junta airstrikes near the Mon-Karen border, as fighting and attacks on communities continue across Myanmar. Fuel and finances: The Thanlyin refinery has resumed operations after nearly a decade offline, in a bid to reduce fuel imports. Meanwhile, the regime won approval to borrow 2.1 trillion kyats from the central bank, raising warnings of further pressure on the kyat and inflation. Aid access: Myanmar civil society groups are urging the World Bank to work with local resistance and democratic networks, rather than the military regime, to deliver assistance under its new fragility strategy. ASEAN push: The junta has formed a committee to seek full reintegration into ASEAN, despite the bloc’s continued exclusion of its leader from top-level meetings over failure to implement its peace plan. Displacement: An account from Rakhine describes families struggling to survive in an IDP camp after the military burned their village.

Aid and Governance: Myanmar civil society groups urged the World Bank to work directly with local resistance and democratic networks under its new fragility strategy, warning that aid must not be weaponized by the military regime. War’s Civilian Toll: Trade at Kyauktaw’s key India-linked market has largely stopped after airstrikes killed 50 people on September 28. Sales have fallen sharply, cutting incomes and disrupting supplies in Arakan State. Conscription Fears: The regime denied reports that university students would be forced into military service, but students and families remain anxious as local offices collect student lists. Scam Crackdown: China sentenced three leaders of a Myanmar-based Kokang crime network to death for crimes including fraud and murder; 58 others received prison terms. Fuel Supply: The regime reopened the first phase of the Thanlyin refinery, saying it will reduce fuel imports and foreign-currency costs.

Conflict: Myanmar military airstrikes hit Wuntho in Sagaing Region as forces push toward the Sagaing–Kachin corridor; separate reports say attacks in Sagaing killed six civilians. Christian advocates say troops destroyed a Presbyterian church in Chin State and burned a Baptist church in Kachin State. Political repression: The regime rearrested 35 political prisoners after their release, bringing fresh terrorism charges, while it is also pursuing cases against five exiled media outlets. Regional diplomacy: Malaysia says it persuaded Myanmar’s regime to accept the return of detained nationals; after 1,476 deportations, it is preparing to send back 3,500 more. Drugs: Police seized nearly 800 kilograms of suspected crystal meth in Taunggyi and arrested three people. Economy and recovery: Phase I of the Thanlyin refinery has been commissioned to boost domestic fuel production. UNDP is offering recovery funding to eligible small businesses hit by the 2025 earthquake, with applications due by October 19.

Conflict: Three people were reportedly killed in Magway as junta forces pushed toward Rakhine; separate airstrikes in Sagaing killed six civilians. Refugee Returns: Malaysia says Myanmar has agreed to accept refugees at its own expense, with more than 3,000 returns planned. The UN, however, warns that violence in Rakhine makes safe Rohingya repatriation impossible. Scam Networks: China sentenced three leaders of the Wei crime family to death for running scam compounds in Myanmar’s Kokang region; dozens of others received prison terms. Trafficking: Thai authorities rescued seven Myanmar children during an investigation into a trafficking network in Bangkok. Regional Security: BIMSTEC members, including Myanmar, adopted a declaration pledging cooperation against terrorism, trafficking, cybercrime and drug smuggling.

Child Trafficking: Thai authorities rescued seven Myanmar children allegedly forced to sell flowers to tourists in Bangkok and arrested four suspects. Scam Networks: A Chinese court sentenced three leaders of the Myanmar-based Wei family gang to death for crimes including telecom fraud and murder; 58 others received prison or life sentences. Rohingya Crisis: A UN investigator says ongoing violence against civilians in Rakhine is preventing safe returns. More than 154,000 Rohingya have fled to Bangladesh since early 2024, where the refugee population now exceeds 1.2 million. Civilian Safety: Reports say junta airstrikes on a monastery and villages in Sagaing killed six civilians. Forced Conscription: Yangon universities can no longer defer students from military service until graduation, heightening fears of arbitrary recruitment among young people and their families. Regional Labor Rights: A labor confederation urged ASEAN to reject groups it says are misrepresenting independent Myanmar unions to gain recognition in regional forums.

Airstrikes: Six civilians were killed when Myanmar’s military struck a monastery and villages in Sagaing, amid a wider campaign of air attacks. Scam Crackdown: A Chinese court sentenced three leaders of the Wei family crime network to death for crimes tied to scam compounds in Kokang; dozens of others received prison terms. Refugee Returns: Malaysia says 1,400 of 5,000 Myanmar nationals identified for repatriation have been sent back, with the rest to follow in stages; those facing criminal charges must first complete legal proceedings. Workers’ Rights: Ahead of an ASEAN migrant-labour forum, a regional union confederation urged ASEAN to reject groups it says are misusing independent Myanmar unions’ names and logos to gain legitimacy for the junta. Regional Security: At the first BIMSTEC home ministers’ meeting, India urged stronger regional action against drug trafficking and organized crime, citing the Golden Triangle that includes Myanmar.

Forced Recruitment: Young men in Hpa-An are staying indoors after dark amid reports that junta supporters are seizing youths for military service. Leaked documents cited by the BBC indicate authorities face orders to meet recruitment quotas. Airstrikes: Myanmar’s air force reportedly carried out 30 strikes in Sagaing, killing civilians and destroying a historic monastery. In Rakhine, seven civilians were reportedly killed as fighting intensified near Sittwe. Rohingya: A UN investigator says continuing violence in Rakhine is preventing safe returns to Myanmar; more than 154,000 Rohingya have fled to Bangladesh since early 2024. Regional ties: India is hosting the first BIMSTEC home ministers’ meeting today, with cross-border security among the agenda items. Former Japanese PM Fumio Kishida urged Japan to support ASEAN efforts to bring Myanmar back into the bloc’s meetings. Political prisoners: Myanmar activist Bo Kyi, co-founder of the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, says his Ramon Magsaysay Award belongs to political prisoners and the people fighting injustice.

Airstrikes: Myanmar’s military launched 30 strikes on four Sagaing villages and attacked a monastery in Shwebo on Oct. 11–12, killing at least five civilians and injuring 23, according to local reports. The monastery’s historic memorial buildings were destroyed. Migrant Workers: More than 300 workers have reportedly been blocked from returning to overseas jobs after taking leave, with authorities demanding proof of income-tax payments and remittances through official channels. Sanctions: Justice For Myanmar condemned Washington’s removal of sanctions on Shwe Byain Phyu Group family member Theint Win Htet, calling it another step that could embolden the military. Democratic Representation: The Inter-Parliamentary Union reaffirmed the CRPH as its official parliamentary interlocutor for Myanmar for a fifth year and rejected recognition of the military-backed parliament. Regional Diplomacy: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos praised ASEAN’s renewed engagement with Min Aung Hlaing, calling it a new approach to the crisis, while critics warn that engagement risks legitimizing the regime.

Conflict and Conscription: Reports say airstrikes killed seven civilians in Rakhine as fighting intensified near Sittwe. Myanmar youths also fear being abducted for forced military service, while analysts say the junta lacks the strength to retake the country and increasingly relies on air attacks. Rohingya Crisis: Bangladesh is pressing for a regional and international effort to secure a sustainable return, citing the Arakan Army’s control of much of Rakhine alongside Myanmar’s government. Cost of Power: Solar panel and battery prices have surged amid power cuts and fears of a severe El Niño, with some prices changing within a day. Government Changes: The presidency reassigned five deputy ministers and appointed five replacements, including new ministers for health, education and labour. Cross-Border Crime: Indian authorities seized 53.9 kilograms of methamphetamine in Guwahati, saying the drugs came from Myanmar; two men from Manipur were arrested.